The war in Ukraine hit a major inflection point in late September, following major advances of Ukrainian forces that resulted in the Kremlin’s call for mobilization and annexation of four regions of Ukrainian territory. As a result, more extreme and dangerous downside scenarios have become far more likely now, demanding that multinational companies assess likelihoods and their level of exposure to the array of trajectories the war could take.
Ultimately, the analyst believes the war will reach yet another stalemate in 2023, leading to possible ceasefire talks only in late 2023, and the war’s end is only truly possible with the collapse of either the Volodymyr Zelenskiy regime in Kyiv or the Vladimir Putin regime in Moscow. Until then, anticipate further escalation, with elevated likelihoods for downside scenarios, including a potential direct conflict with NATO.
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- Russia-Ukraine Scenarios - Overview
- Russia-Ukraine Scenarios - Detail
Methodology
The author’s strengths include global management topics and country level analysis tailored for a senior executive audience. The research focuses on cross-industry implications of macroeconomic, geopolitical risk, and emerging trends that impact the strategic decisions of business decisionmakers.
Research analysts:
Almost all have advanced degrees in economics, international affairs, or political science, and are multilingual. Researchers have lived and worked in the markets they cover and are based in regional hubs close to market
- Analysts cover:
- Economic trends and indicators (near-term volatility, long-term forecasts); political developments (election results, post-election policy, regulations, spending, monetary policy), outlook for market demand and cost of doing business, upside and downside scenarios, MNC investment sentiment, business practices
- Quality control:
- Research workflows supported by standard, proprietary process maps, tools and templates for analysis and writing, forecast admin tool, and content management system
- Research managers pressure-test quality, consistency and usefulness of outlooks, scenarios, and suggested actions
- Analyst interactions with clients (>1500/year) provide ongoing feedback loops from on-the-ground operators to c-suite
- Research inputs include:
- Primary: Multinational and local executives (interviews, surveys, analyst consultations), international and local experts (NGO officials, academics, consultants), international and local government officials
- Secondary: Local-language news and international media, public/official data sources, government/association reports, Bloomberg
- Research outputs include:
- Forecast economic data, country/region outlooks and scenarios, market intelligence reports (monthly/quarterly for key countries as well as occasional Market Spotlights), as-needed analyst commentary alerts
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