Global Risk Report: Q2 2024 Update

The Global Risk Report is based on the analyst Country Risk Index (GCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.

The twenty-fourth update version of the analyst Country Risk Index (GCRI) Q2 2024 ranks Switzerland at the top followed by Denmark and Luxembourg. 38 countries were identified in the low-risk zone, 48 countries under manageable risk, 59 countries under high risk and eight countries in the very high-risk zone in GCRI Q2 2024.

The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from the analyst Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, The analyst analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.

Scope

• Global risk: The Q2 2024 update of the the analyst Country Risk Index (GCRI) indicates a decrease in the risk score to 55.60 from 57.21 the previous quarter due to stronger performance in major emerging economies such as Brazil, India, and Russia. Additionally, easing inflationary pressures and policy rate cuts in a few economies have contributed to the improved business and consumer confidence.
• Asia-Pacific: The Asia-Pacific region's risk score decreased from 56.17 in Q1 2024 to 54.14 in Q2 2024 mainly due to improved economic conditions and policy measures in major economies such as China and India. China's policy stimulus and India’s significant public investment contributed to economic stability. Additionally, declining inflation pressures and robust private consumption in emerging markets played significant roles. Also, robust economic performance in major countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia on an annual basis reduced perceived risks, improving the region's overall economic outlook.
• Americas: The Americas' risk score fell from 58.86 in Q1 2024 to 57.06 in Q2 2024, owing to several favorable economic developments. The easing of inflationary pressures and a cautiously optimistic Federal Reserve policy outlook boosted confidence. Stronger economic performances in key Latin American economies, combined with effective policy measures, helped mitigate risks. However, rising protests and violence in the region, along with high debt level in the US, continue to be major areas of concern.
• Europe: Europe continues to be the least-risk region in the world, with a risk score of 41.83 in Q2 2024, up from 43.78 in Q1 2024. This decrease in risk is attributed to several positive developments, including lower inflation, a stronger labor market, and a gradual increase in consumer confidence. Additionally, policy rate cuts are gradually improving business confidence. Nonetheless, ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to pose uncertainties.
• Middle East and Africa: The Middle East and Africa remains the highest-risk region, with a risk score of 65.87 in Q2 2024. Heightened tensions between Israel and Iran, and the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, pose a significant threat to regional stability. The region is also grappling with an escalating humanitarian crisis. Despite these challenges, there was a slight improvement in the risk score from 66.93 in Q1 2024, primarily due to a rebound in Sub-Saharan Africa, which was driven by declining inflation rates and increased private consumption.

Reasons to Buy

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