Global Risk Report: Q4 2024 Update

The twenty-sixth update of the analyst Country Risk Index (GCRI) Q4 2024 ranks Switzerland at the top followed by Denmark and Ireland. 36 countries were identified in the low-risk zone, 53 countries under medium risk, 60 countries under high risk, and four countries in the very high-risk zone in GCRI Q4 2024.

Global Risk Report is based on the analyst Country Risk Index (GCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.

The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from the analyst Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, The analyst analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.

Scope

• Global risk: The Q4 2024 the analyst Country Risk Index (GCRI) shows a slight drop in risk score to 55 from 55.6 in Q3 2024. Policy rate cuts and strengthening domestic demand have relieved pressures in major economies, but significant risks persist, including geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and climate-related challenges.
• Asia-Pacific: The Asia-Pacific region’s risk score fell from 54.0 in Q3 2024 to 53.4 in Q4 2024, driven by favorable economic trends in emerging markets and policy support from China. China’s stimulus measures are expected to partially mitigate the impact of US tariffs, while easing inflation and resilient private consumption in other emerging economies boosted the outlook. Strong growth in Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia reduced perceived risks, enhancing regional stability.
• Americas: The Americas’ risk score dropped from 57.0 in Q3 2024 to 56.6 in Q4 2024, driven by policy rate cuts and strong consumer spending, especially in the US. However, concerns persist over the impact of high US debt and tariff war. Latin America and the Caribbean made progress in tackling post-pandemic imbalances but continue to face fiscal challenges and high poverty levels.
• Europe: Europe remains the world’s least-risk region, with its risk score slightly improving from 41.4 in Q3 2024 to 41.0 in Q4 2024. Economic recovery continues, with the Eurozone growing by 0.9% in both quarters on an annual basis, and investment sentiment is expected to be supported by rate cuts, including those by the ECB. However, recovery is moderated by ongoing geopolitical tensions, labor shortages, and climate concerns, underscoring the importance of sustainable strategies to navigate these evolving challenges and support long-term stability.
• Middle East and Africa: The region’s risk score fell from 66.3 in Q3 2024 to 65.4 in Q4 2024, driven by growth in the non-oil sector. However, the region remains the highest risk globally due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts. Economic diversification and regulatory reforms are key to resilience, with some oil exporters expanding into the non-oil sector. Africa’s growth outlook remains optimistic, supported by the African Continental Free Trade Area, but challenges such as rising debt and natural disasters persist.

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