Demand for single-ply roofing is forecast to increase minimally to 40 million squares in 2028. Going forward, market advances will be restrained due to unusually high weather-related reroofing demand in 2023; growth in commercial building construction is not projected to increase at a pace significant enough to result in substantial increases in demand. However, ongoing sales will be supported by:
- rising interest in cool roofing (for example, light-colored rubber and plastic membranes)
- efforts of building owners and contractors to use more durable roofing, such as applying EPDM over a bituminous roof that has been damaged by hail
TPO Popularity Continues to Increase in Commercial Markets
Growth will be slow, but TPO membranes continue to gain market share in commercial applications - largely at the expense of bituminous roofing products - due to the following:
- continuing shortage of skilled roofers, which promotes use of self-adhesive TPO membranes that are easier to install
- light weight of most TPO membranes, which often allows them to be installed over existing roofing (instead of tearing off the old material) and reducing the amount of labor time and expense
- increasing availability of wider and thicker membranes (the former are suitable for use on larger roof expanses, and the latter can better withstand punctures and uplift)
Commercial Reroofing to Remain Leading Application for Single-Ply Roofing
The commercial market accounts for most single-ply roofing membrane demand. Single-ply products are only installed on low-slope roofs, limiting their use in the residential market to high-rise multifamily complexes and (more rarely) single-family residences with low-slope roof elements. Reroofing applications account for about 80% of single-ply sales in most years. However, the high level of repair and replacement roofing activity over the past few years will limit greater reroofing demand gains through 2028.
Historical Market Trends
Demand for single-ply roofing can vary yearly, and is largely determined by numerous factors related to building construction activity. Those include:
- interest rates, as lower ones encourage home and business owners to fund roof repair and replacement projects with credit
- the number and types of commercial buildings erected or repaired in any given year
- types of roofing materials most often specified by contractors and other consumers in each region of the US
- the roofing materials originally installed on the structure
The US has a significant number of homes and businesses with roofs that are at or near the end of their life expectancies. Consequently, age-related reroofing is the most significant driver of single-ply roofing demand in the US.
Multiple other variables can affect demand for single-ply roofing in a particular year or over a short period of time. Among these are:
- weather conditions, especially outbreaks of severe weather that cause widespread damage to roofs (e.g., hurricanes and tropical storms, tornadoes, hailstorms, and winter storms)
- changes and modifications to state and local building codes
- the adoption of legislation (such as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017) that can cause a temporary increase in reroofing activity
- insurers requiring homeowners to replace older or worn roofs with newer materials that better resist severe weather on condition of maintaining coverage
Pricing Trends
Prices for single-ply roofing products differ greatly based on their varying raw material and manufacturing costs. Those factors include:
- the prices of key raw materials, like petroleum and plastic resins
- costs related to the production of roofing materials (manufacturing equipment, energy)
- transportation and distribution expenses related to delivering finished products to distributors
- labor, as many industries are having difficulty hiring skilled workers to operate and maintain production equipment
Through 2028, the average price of single-ply roofing products is forecast to rise.
Price increases will be supported by roofing manufacturers’ efforts to offer products with enhanced performance and aesthetics; these generally use raw materials more intensively, so they often have higher costs per square. Examples include plastic and rubber roofing membranes with thicker backings that enhance puncture and tear resistance.
Competitive Products
Plastic and rubber single-ply roofing compete with other low-slope products, including:
- modified bitumen and bituminous built-up roofing (BUR) systems
- metal standing seam and panel roofing
- primary liquid-applied roof coatings
- spray polyurethane foam (SPF) roofing
- tensioned fabric roofing
- vegetative (or green) roofs
Competition among these products is based on factors like material and installation costs, preventive maintenance expenses, durability, and building code requirements.
Bituminous and metal roofing provide the greatest competition for single-ply products. Demand for SPF and primary liquid-applied roof coatings is rather limited due to their considerably higher costs per square.
Weather & Climate
Weather and climate conditions play an important role in generating demand for roofing, particularly in reroofing applications; weather-related reroofing accounts for a significant share of demand in any given year.
Periodic outbreaks of severe weather activity are perhaps the most noticeable generator of reroofing demand. Several severe weather events can cause roofing damage, such as:
- Hurricanes and tropical storms: High winds can uplift roofing materials, while projectiles carried aloft by their winds can damage roofs. Additionally, the large quantities of precipitation that often accompany these storms can cause leaks or premature roof degradation. Due to the size and paths most hurricanes and tornadoes take, roof damage can occur over a wide area - often encompassing many states.
- Hailstorms: Hail can cause tears and punctures to roofing membranes, crack or shatter asphalt shingles, and dent metal roofing, which can cause water to pond and prematurely corrode the material.
- Tornadoes: Like hurricanes - but with damage usually occurring more locally - the high winds of tornadoes often uplift roofs or damage roofs via high-velocity impacts.
- Winter storms: The weight of heavy snowfalls can damage roofs or collapse roof decks, while the freezing (and subsequent thawing) of snow and ice can cause ice dams that lead to leaks and tears.
Even during periods of normal weather activity, roofs can be subject to a wide range of weather conditions over the course of a year - all of which can cause slight damage or degradation to a roof surface. For instance:
- Roofing membranes can expand during high-temperature conditions and contract in low temperatures, forming gaps between seams that can lead to leaks.
- Ultraviolet radiation from sunlight can cause asphalt to melt or break down plastic and rubber molecules, subjecting roofing made from those materials to premature degradation.
- Precipitation (both rain and snow) can slowly degrade roofing materials, causing leaks and occasionally damaging roof decks.
Severe weather generally has a larger effect on the residential roofing market than on commercial roofing because:
- Steep-slope roofing products - which account for most residential roofing - are more likely to be uplifted by high winds.
- Homeowners are less likely than commercial building owners and managers to engage in regular roof maintenance.
However, roofs on commercial structures are still often subject to weather-related damage. For instance, water - such as after a period of heavy rain - can pond on a low-slope roof and damage the primary material, while hail can puncture membrane-based roofing systems and cause leaks.
Report Details
This study analyzes US single-ply roofing demand by product, application (new vs. reroofing), market, slope (steep-slope vs. low slope), installation type (self-adhesive membranes, mechanically attached), and US geographic region. Demand is provided in both area terms (squares) and value terms (US dollars). Historical data (2013, 2018, and 2023) and forecasts for 2028 and 2033 are presented for US roofing demand in squares and US dollars. In addition, annual data is presented for 2020 through 2027.
The following product types segment single-ply roofing product demand:
- plastic single-ply roofing
- thermoplastic polyolefin (TPO)
- polyvinyl chloride (PVC)
- other plastic membranes (e.g., ethylene copolymers, chlorinated polyethylene, ethylene interpolymers, nitrile alloy, and tripolymer alloy)
- rubber single-ply roofing
- ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM)
- other rubber formulations, such as neoprene rubber, chlorosulfonated polyethylene (CSPE), and butyl
Single-ply roofing shipments, imports, and exports are also shown at the aggregate level in millions of dollars. Average product prices (at the manufacturers’ level) and installation costs are provided for major product types in dollars per square.
Excluded from the scope of the study are such related products as:
- roofing underlays
- flashings
- coatings used as repair and restorative compounds and not used as a structure’s primary roofing material
- roof-mount solar panels
- mopping asphalts, granules, and ballast used during the installation of bituminous roofs
- prefabricated roof trusses and other structural supports
- roof decking materials (e.g., plywood and other engineered wood materials, concrete, metal)
Demand for roofing in the residential market is also analyzed by housing type:
- single-family housing
- multifamily housing
- manufactured housing
Housing units located in structures that are primarily used for something other than habitation are also excluded from this report’s scope. For example, a small living space within a larger retail facility would be classified as part of a retail building rather than a residential one.
Demand for commercial roofing is analyzed by building type:
- office, retail, and lodging
- institutional
- industrial
- transportation and other, including
- civic centers
- courthouses
- government facilities (both administrative and public safety)
- post offices
- agriculture facilities
- recreational facilities
This report is part of a series of studies available on the roofing industry.
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary
