Macroeconomic Growth Opportunities, China, 2024-2029

High-tech Manufacturing, Trade Diversification, Domestic Consumption Boost, and Healthcare Stimulus Fuel Medium-term Growth

China's economy is poised for steady growth, projecting a 4.8% increase in GDP for 2024, following a 5.2% rise in 2023. This growth is supported by robust public investment, a resurgence in private consumption, and increased net exports. However, challenges such as an aging labor force, escalating debt levels, and geopolitical tensions around Taiwan and the South China Sea remain significant headwinds. National strategic efforts, including Made in China 2025 and the current Five-Year Plan, aim to streamline logistics and enhance high-tech manufacturing capabilities. They are central to improving supply chain efficiencies and strengthening export competitiveness.

Increased investments in disruptive technologies will foster a robust ecosystem for start-ups and technology firms, reinforcing China’s edge in advanced sectors. Real GDP growth is forecast to average 3.8% between 2024 and 2029. This China-centric macroeconomic thought leadership report identifies exposure to medium- and long-term risks and provides a growth snapshot of the country through the identification of growth opportunities. A key focus of this piece is China’s evolving social landscape and how businesses can leverage emerging trends and policy reforms to drive sustainable investment opportunities across various industries. The report includes comprehensive macroeconomic sections that offer an in-depth analysis of the country’s social outlook, demographic profile, international relations, and global positioning.

KEY ISSUES ADDRESSED

• What are the projections for China's macroeconomic growth over the next 5 years?
• How does China plan to position itself globally amid escalating geopolitical tensions?
• What impact will demographic changes in China have on its medium- and long-term economic growth?
• What are the emerging growth opportunities in China's healthcare, manufacturing, and sustainability sectors?