Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Opportunities and Strategies to 2033

This report describes and explains the sustainable aviation fuel market and covers 2018-2023, termed the historic period, and 2023-2028, 2033F termed the forecast period. The report evaluates the market across each region and for the major economies within each region.

The global sustainable aviation fuel market reached a value of nearly $1.2 billion in 2023, having grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 54.03% since 2018. The market is expected to grow from $1.2 billion in 2023 to $13.9 billion in 2028 at a rate of 63.03%. The market is then expected to grow at a CAGR of 37.67% from 2028 and reach $68.73 billion in 2033.

Growth in the historic period resulted from increasing disposable income, increased air traffic, global expansion of aviation industry and awareness of environmental sustainability. Factors that negatively affected growth in the historic period was limited availability of high production costs.

Going forward, rapid urbanization, strong economic growth, regulatory support and government policies, environmental regulations and net-zero goals and increase in adoption of biofuel will drive the growth. Factor that could hinder the growth of the sustainable aviation fuel market in the future include limited production capacity.

The sustainable aviation fuel market is segmented by fuel type into biofuel, power-to-liquid and gas-to-liquid. The biofuel market was the largest segment of the sustainable aviation fuel market segmented by fuel type, accounting for 70.41% or $849.62 million of the total in 2023. Going forward, the biofuel segment is expected to be the fastest growing segment in the sustainable aviation fuel market segmented by fuel type, at a CAGR of 66.48% during 2023-2028.

The sustainable aviation fuel market is segmented by blending capacity into blow 30%, 30% To 50% and above 50%. The 30% To 50% market was the largest segment of the sustainable aviation fuel market segmented by blending capacity, accounting for 51.94% or $626.79 million of the total in 2023. Going forward, the 30% To 50% segment is expected to be the fastest growing segment in the sustainable aviation fuel market segmented by technology, at a CAGR of 66.71% during 2023-2028.

The sustainable aviation fuel market is segmented by platform into commercial aviation, military aviation, business and general aviation and unmanned aerial vehicles. The commercial aviation market was the largest segment of the sustainable aviation fuel market segmented by platform, accounting for 70.02% or $844.95 million of the total in 2023. Going forward, the unmanned aerial vehicles segment is expected to be the fastest growing segment in the sustainable aviation fuel market segmented by platform, at a CAGR of 71.14% during 2023-2028.

Western Europe was the largest region in the sustainable aviation fuel market, accounting for 62.99% or $760.15 million of the total in 2023. It was followed by North America, Asia Pacific and then the other regions. Going forward, the fastest-growing regions in the sustainable aviation fuel market will be Asia Pacific and Africa where growth will be at CAGRs of 78.18% and 68.19% respectively. These will be followed by Middle East and Western Europe where the markets are expected to grow at CAGRs of 67.94% and 56.56% respectively.

The global sustainable aviation fuel market is fairly concentrated, with large players in the market. The top ten competitors in the market made up to 29.17% of the total market in 2023. The market concentration can be attributed to the presence of few large players in different geographies. Neste Oyj was the largest competitor with a 5.99% share of the market, followed by Montana Renewables with 3.98%, BP plc with 3.62%, World Energy Inc. with 3.51%, TotalEnergies SE with 3.03%, Eni S.p.A. with 2.57%, AVFUEL CORPORATION with 2.33%, Shell plc with 1.86%, Chevron Renewable Energy Group (REG) with 1.67% SkyNRG BV. with 0.62%.

The top opportunities in the sustainable aviation fuel market segmented by fuel type will arise in the biofuel segment, which will gain $10.01 billion of global annual sales by 2028. The top opportunities in the sustainable aviation fuel market segmented by blending capacity will arise in the 30% to 50% segment, which will gain $7.44 billion of global annual sales by 2028. The top opportunities in the sustainable aviation fuel market segmented by platform will arise in the commercial aviation segment, which will gain $9.38 billion of global annual sales by 2028. The sustainable aviation fuel market size will gain the most in the USA at $1.58 billion.

Market-trend-based strategies for the sustainable aviation fuel market include focusing on developing innovative products, including ethanol-based sustainable aviation fuel, focusing on innovation, such as the SAF Dashboard, which provides real-time tracking of sustainable aviation fuel usage, focusing on innovative processes, such as advanced bio-refining technologies and electrofuels and focusing on strategic partnerships and acquisitions.

Player-adopted strategies in the sustainable aviation fuel market include focus on enhancing its operational capabilities through the launch of comprehensive solution, strengthening its market position through strategic mergers and acquisition and focus on strategic partnership for collective procurement effort to achieve net zero climate impact.

To take advantage of the opportunities, the analyst recommends the sustainable aviation fuel companies to focus on innovation and sustainability in SAF development, focus on innovation and transparency to drive SAF adoption, focus on advanced technologies to enhance SAF production, focus on the biofuel segment for rapid growth, focus on the 30% to 50% market segment, expand in emerging markets, focus on strategic partnerships and acquisitions to drive SAF growth, focus on competitive and value-based pricing strategies, focus on targeted marketing to raise SAF awareness, focus on strategic partnerships for co-branding opportunities and focus on the unmanned aerial vehicles market segment.