Strategic Intelligence: Inflation Outlook Executive Briefing (Tenth Edition)

This edition looks explicitly at the expected impact of US tariffs on inflation and the global economy, as well as implications for key sectors

Concerns over a potential US recession in 2025 are growing as investors reassess the economic impact of Trump’s tariff policies. Tariffs alone should not be enough to cause economic contraction. The risk is that market volatility triggers reflexivity, sending corporate and consumer confidence plummeting

We had been expecting higher inflation in the 2020s than the 2010s. The risks to the upside have increased but only if Trump combines negative supply shocks such as tariffs and deportations with expansionary fiscal policy. For the rest of the decade (perhaps already evident for the US), we expect a persistently higher and more volatile inflationary outlook, but not one where inflation spirals. A global shift in labor markets (characterized by the reduced supply of new labor in many markets), will mean a return to higher wage inflation. At the same time, while de-globalization means domestic costs in most developed markets will be more responsive to labor market conditions, demand is set to rebuild

The impact of tariffs on inflation and GDP, with the risk of a recession in the US and a deflationary shock for the rest of the world.

Scope

• This report discusses how the key policies of President, Trump, especially tariffs, will impact the US and global economy.
• It explores his likely policies and what their impact will be.
• It explores the sectors that will potentially be most impacted, including energy and automotive.

Reasons to Buy

• Understand the expected impact of US tariffs on inflation and the global economy, as well as implications for key sectors