Geopolitics in Insurance - Thematic Intelligence

As the geopolitical landscape becomes increasingly fraught, the insurance industry must be aware of the growing political risk across the world. The modern company has connections to a multitude of countries and is therefore subject to risk in each of those nations. These risks include expropriation and discrimination, political violence, forced abandonment, import and export restrictions, currency conversion or transfer restrictions, and kidnapping or ransom. The current global economic climate, social media as a tool to mobilize or drive activism, and increasing distrust in governing bodies and institutions are all fueling this growing political risk. Global supply chain problems and a pattern of deglobalization have affected global trade and are increasing marine, aviation, and transit risks. Meanwhile, the irrepressible rise of extreme weather events is driving significant economic and insured losses.

The occurrence of civil unrest is growing across the world as consumer finances are continually squeezed due to the global cost-of-living crisis. Political risk and political violence are becoming prevalent threats to businesses across the world and therefore are becoming key risks to insurers. Military tensions are growing around Taiwan (a province of China) and the South China Sea. Businesses operating in or around China could be subject to similar measures as those in Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, leading to various knock-on effects for trade-related insurance policies. The cyber risks posed by military activity are also a major systemic risk to the industry. As companies engage in reshoring or friendshoring away from China, supply chains will be affected by the changes. Costs will almost certainly go up as operations are moved away from low-cost labor locations, thus increasing claims costs for the industry. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions around major shipping passages will likely put increased pressure on marine, aviation, and transit lines.

Scope

• Russia's invasion of Ukraine will be highly costly to insurers. Estimates suggest losses could be as high as $20 billion for the industry.
• The past few years have seen considerable damage caused by political violence. For example, Allianz Global Corporate and Specialty cites $1.3 billion in losses caused by damage to infrastructure and lost output in Peru during protests in 2022.
• The effects and costs of climate change are tangible. Swiss Re estimates that 2022 saw $115 billion in insured losses globally.

Reasons to Buy

• Understand the relationships between the world's current major and upcoming geopolitical powers.
• Determine how political risk and political violence are increasing across the world and how insurers can mitigate against them, providing vital cover for international businesses.
• See how economic, social, and political factors are coalescing into a difficult period across the world.
• Formulate strategies for overcoming these challenges in areas across the insurance value chain.