Futures in Action brings together the expertise of contributors from a wide range of public and private organizations. The diversity of their contributions puts into perspective the implementation of foresight both in France and worldwide.
Exploring the major lessons and questions to come, this book is for all those who are convinced of the need to anticipate and build the future by taking action today.
Table of Contents
Author Presentation xiii
Introduction xxiii
Carine Dartiguepeyrou And Michel Saloff-Coste
Part 1 The Foresight of Futurists 1
Chapter 1 How to Build Futures Consciousness and Resilience for Operational Foresight 3
Sirkka Heinonen
1.1 Introduction 3
1.2 Choice of approaches and methods for foresight in practice 4
1.3 Futures mean change - where and how to look for futures signals to build up futures resilience 7
Chapter 2 A Strategic Foresight Framework for Anticipating Uncertainties in Tourism Industry 11
Fawaz Abu Sitta
2.1 Introduction 11
2.2 Strategic planning versus strategic foresight 12
2.3 Uncertainty management framework 14
2.3.1 Framing 14
2.3.2 Understanding 15
2.3.3 Exploring 17
2.3.4 Realizing 19
2.3.5 Designing 24
2.3.6 Shaping 26
2.4 Recommendations 26
Chapter 3 Generative AI in the Newsroom: The Future of Journalism and Media 29
Sylvia Gallusser
3.1 Becoming a professional futurist 29
3.1.1 Career paths to becoming a futurist 29
3.1.2 From anxiety to driving force 31
3.1.3 Creating a professional foresight research practice 32
3.2 In action: applying foresight in action with a group of European journalists 34
3.2.1 Context of the request 34
3.2.2 A program of foresight in action 35
3.2.3 Challenges and key learnings 38
Chapter 4 Leading a New Path with Foresight in China 41
Lynn Lin And Bin Hu
4.1 Foresight’s value is gradually being seen 41
4.2 Foresight practice demands a leap of faith 43
4.3 Fostering futures thinking as the foundation 44
4.4 Navigating foresight with patience and agility 45
4.5 Charting new business landscape in China with foresight 47
Chapter 5 Creating Desirable Futures 49
Carine Dartiguepeyrou
5.1 The specifics of foresight in action 49
5.1.1 Strategic foresight 50
5.1.2 Foresight questioning 51
5.1.3 Revisiting the foresight triangle 51
5.2 The futurist’s tools: between tradition and innovation 52
5.2.1 The futurist’s range 52
5.2.2 Monitoring 52
5.2.3 Shared challenges 53
5.3 Sociocultural foresight 55
5.3.1 The importance of values 55
5.3.2 Bias or futurist culture? 56
5.3.3 A cultural paradigm shift? 56
5.4 Personal considerations 57
5.4.1 An affinity for alterity and singularity 57
5.4.2 Uniting across divisions 58
Part 2 Foresight for Companies and Public Institutions 61
Chapter 6 Foresight at Michelin: Evidence and Reflections 63
Gaël Quéinnec
6.1 The empirical meeting of new needs and qualifying resources 63
6.1.1 Collective foresight based on an influence approach 63
6.1.2 Reorganization creates a need to build visions 64
6.2 A predisposing career path 64
6.2.1 Training in the humanities 64
6.2.2 A career in strategic marketing 64
6.2.3 Operational and international legitimacy 65
6.3 My training in foresight 65
6.3.1 My main trainers and mentors: a bibliographical overview 65
6.4 Accelerators for a change in scale 66
6.4.1 First marker: the trend radar 66
6.4.2 Second marker: sustainable development metascenarios (SHAPES) 67
6.4.3 The increasing emergence of foresight in the company as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and other crises 68
6.5 Duty to warn, blind spot researcher, mental agility agent: what is the mission for Michelin foresight? 68
6.5.1 Purpose: preparing for the field of possibilities 68
6.5.2 What are the observable impacts? 69
6.5.3 The difficulty of assessing foresight 70
6.6 What deliverables? 71
6.6.1 For and with the intern 71
6.6.2 With external partners, according to a graduated scale of involvement, ranging from crossing visions to criticizing strategic marketing 71
6.7 What methods and resources? 71
6.7.1 Foresight requires a wide range of thinking and specific methods 71
6.7.2 Potential and experience 72
Chapter 7 Bouygues Construction, Committed to a Desirable Future 73
Virginie Alonzi
7.1 Context 73
7.2 Foresight at Bouygues Construction 74
7.2.1 The creation and missions of the foresight department 74
7.2.2 Our approach 74
Chapter 8 Brand Heritage, a Catalyst for Innovation and Transformation 79
Cecilia Ercoli
8.1 Introduction, the mission - what foresight? 79
8.2 Practice - which approach? 80
8.2.1 Methodologies used 80
8.2.2 More concretely, what kind of organization? What kind of project design? 81
8.3 Organic governance - how does the emergence of creation and innovation cope with the organization’s approval processes? 84
Chapter 9 Decathlon Perspectives: Shaping the Future with Collective Intelligence 87
Audrey Hespel
9.1 An explorer of possible and desirable futures 87
9.2 Decathlon’s various foresight experiments 88
9.3 Obstacles to avoid when using foresight 89
9.4 Tools and sources of inspiration 90
9.5 Potential disruptions and future trends 91
Chapter 10 Foresight at the Centre National d’Études Spatiales 93
Sébastien Lombard
10.1 Foresight methodologies and practices 94
10.2 Memory and foresight monitoring 96
10.3 Foresight and action 97
10.4 Influences for tomorrow 99
Part 3 Foresight at Universities 101
Chapter 11 From Founding Institution to Collaborative Foresight at the Université Catholique de Lille 103
Jean-Marc Assié And Louis-Marie Clouet
11.1 The founding institution of a forward-looking university 103
11.2 Foresight based on experimentation and innovation 104
11.2.1 Where “rapid transitions” cross ethics 104
11.2.2 Foresight of innovative ecosystems 105
11.2.3 Design, creativity and foresight 106
11.2.4 ECOPOSS “Osons l’éloge du futur” 106
11.3 The paradoxes of foresight 108
11.3.1 Short or long-term resource allocation? 108
11.3.2 Illegitimate foresight with regard to academic requirements? 108
11.3.3 How do you train in foresight? 109
11.4 “Embedded” foresight to serve the university’s missions 109
11.4.1 Reinforcing the teaching of foresight 109
11.4.2 Reinforcing the contribution of futures in action, in support of the university’s strategy 110
11.4.3 The coherent choice of a “work in progress” and collaborative approach 111
Chapter 12 Operational Foresight at the University of Strasbourg 113
Audrey Kost
12.1 Introduction 113
12.2 The foresight and strategy mission 113
12.3 Three key players in foresight at the University of Strasbourg 115
12.3.1 Catherine Florentz, Vice-President of foresight and strategic actions 115
12.3.2 Audrey Kost, Director of the foresight and strategy mission 116
12.3.3 Julien Weber, Strategy Consultant 117
12.4 Foresight at the University of Strasbourg 117
12.4.1 Practice at all levels 117
12.4.2 An approach that began with major projects 118
12.4.3 A dedicated department for an organic link between foresight and strategy 119
12.4.4 A first presidency seminar 119
12.5 In search of dedicated time 120
12.6 Monitoring and key sources 120
Chapter 13 Using Foresight to Drive Transformation: Building a Strategy After a Merger 121
Pauline Innegraeve
13.1 Shaking up the status quo 121
13.2 Filling in the gaps 122
13.2.1 Initial actions 122
13.2.2 Academic influences 123
13.3 Embarking on a journey in foresight 123
13.4 The risks of the journey 124
13.5 One pit stop before a new beginning 125
13.6 Any candidates for the journey? 128
13.7 The map room 130
Part 4 Local Authority Foresight 133
Chapter 14 Foresight and Public Action: The Case of Greater Lyon 135
Pierre Houssais
14.1 A basic question of public action: “where are we going?” 135
14.1.1 First experience in Saint-Étienne: political foresight to persuade 136
14.1.2 Grand Lyon: making foresight a cross-disciplinary tool for public action 137
14.2 A culture of foresight unique to the Lyon Metropolis 138
14.2.1 An old and still agile service 138
14.2.2 The common good rather than commonplace 141
Chapter 15 Rev3: A Regional Dynamic Combining Foresight and Action 143
Frédéric Motte
15.1 Introduction: qualifying rev3 143
15.2 Back to basics: Jeremy Rifkin’s master plan 144
15.3 Foresight and program documents to mark the life of rev3 146
15.4 Foresight and strategic documents as a general framework for action 148
Chapter 16 Isère 2030: Isère’s Administrative Project 151
Séverine Battin
16.1 Serving the public 151
16.1.1 From social worker to head of local authority 151
16.1.2 The local authority, a local community 152
16.2 Foresight, a necessity for local communities 152
16.2.1 An uncertain and complex environment 152
16.2.2 Changing perspective 152
16.2.3 Collectively preparing for change 153
16.3 Implementing the approach 154
16.3.1 An exploratory approach for the community 154
16.3.2 Staying alert: foresight monitoring 156
16.4 Foresight in the present 157
16.4.1 “Isère 2030”, the backbone of the administrative project 157
16.4.2 Spreading the culture of foresight 158
16.4.3 Appropriation by teams, a catalyst for change 159
16.4.4 Conditions for success and obstacles 159
Chapter 17 Social Cohesion and Solidarity in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques in 2040 161
Jean-Jacques Lasserre
17.1 Territorial foresight initiated by Jean-Jacques Lasserre, President of the Pyrénées-Atlantiques 161
17.1.1 A process led by elected representatives 161
17.1.2 The process of choosing the foresight question 162
17.2 A participatory foresight approach 167
17.2.1 A futures in action participatory workshop 167
17.2.2 What next? 169
Reflection and Perspective on Foresight 171
Carine Dartiguepeyrou
Conclusion 179
Michel Saloff-Coste
References 185
List of Authors 197
Index 199
